THE USE OF PREDICTIVE MODELS IN AN IPM APPROACH TO CONTAINER INHABITING MOSQUITO

Sean P. Healy¹, Kristen Bartlett-Healy², Ary Farojollahi³, Dina Fonseca², Randy Gaugler²

Taryn Crepeau¹, Isik Unlu³, Gary G. Clark⁴, and Daniel A. Strickman⁵

¹Monmouth County Mosquito Extermination Commission, Tinton Falls, NJ

²Center for Vector Biology, Rutgers, The State University of NJ, New Brunswick, NJ

³Mercer County Mosquito Control, Trenton, NJ

⁴USDA-ARS, Gainesville, FL

⁵USDA-ARS, Beltsville, MD

shealy@co.monmouth.nj.us

ABSTRACT

Our objective was to develop temperature based models that could assist us in predicting the best times for early season interventions aimed at controlling container inhabiting mosquitoes in sites located in Monmouth County and Mercer County, New Jersey. During January of 2011 three years of surveillance data for Aedes albopictus were analyzed and similar temporal patterns for BGS trap catches and degree days were seen for both counties. This information was then used to develop models to help predict when to implement early season intervention strategies for the 2011 mosquito season. The historical use of predictive models in an IPM approach to mosquito control will also be discussed.